In a stark warning for the US economy, Larry Fink, the CEO of BlackRock, expressed serious concerns about the growing risk of a recession, exacerbated by escalating trade tensions and tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump. Speaking in an interview with CNBC on April 11, 2025, Fink stated, "I think we’re very close, if not in, a recession now," as the US economy faces mounting uncertainty due to tariff wars and global market instability.

The situation escalated after Trump announced a series of reciprocal tariffs on April 2, followed by a 90-day pause on tariffs announced on April 5. While the temporary halt in tariffs was seen as a potential relief for global markets, Fink believes it will not be enough to restore the US economy's health. He explained, “I think you’re going to see, across the board, just a slowdown until there’s more certainty. And we now have a 90-day pause on the reciprocal tariffs — that means longer, more elevated uncertainty.”

Fink’s warning comes in the wake of a stock market sell-off triggered by Trump's initial tariff announcements. Although the market showed signs of recovery after the pause, experts like Fink remain skeptical, emphasizing that the uncertainty caused by prolonged trade tensions will likely drag on the economy. He noted that the short-term outlook for the US economy remains bleak, with signs of economic slowdown in almost every sector.

In his broader analysis, Fink also looked ahead, highlighting opportunities for growth despite the current turmoil. He pointed to artificial intelligence and advanced infrastructure as sectors that could drive future growth, offering “transformative investment opportunities” that might help the US economy rebound in the long run. However, his immediate concern remains the recession risk tied to the ongoing trade conflict.

Fink also expressed his surprise at the scale of Trump's tariffs, stating that they went beyond what he could have imagined in his extensive career in finance. During a call with analysts following BlackRock's first-quarter earnings report, Fink remarked, “The sweeping US tariff announcements went beyond anything I could have imagined in my 49 years in finance.”

While Fink’s remarks have drawn significant attention, he is not alone in his concerns. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon echoed similar fears, warning that a recession in the US could be a 50% likelihood, citing the negative effects of higher tariffs on economic growth. Dimon added, “I think probably that's (recession) a likely outcome,” further underscoring the growing consensus among financial leaders that the US economy is headed towards a slowdown.

In addition to the private sector concerns, public officials such as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell have also weighed in on the matter. Powell noted that trade wars could lead to higher inflation and slower growth, stressing the high level of uncertainty facing the economy in the near future. "We face a highly uncertain outlook with elevated risks of both higher unemployment and higher inflation," he warned.

Economic experts are also voicing alarm over the potential repercussions of Trump's tariffs. Peter Tchir, head of macro strategies at Academy Securities, bluntly stated, “We are rapidly headed towards recession.” He referred to the reciprocal tariffs as a disaster not only for the US but also for the global economy. According to Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, the implementation of a 25% tariff and the retaliatory measures from trading partners could trigger a severe recession, with GDP falling by nearly 2% and unemployment potentially rising to 7.5%.

This wave of caution from top economic figures comes at a time of heightened market volatility and concerns about global trade relations. The US and its trade partners are at a crossroads, with much at stake regarding future economic policies and international trade agreements.

As BlackRock’s Larry Fink and other financial leaders forecast a potentially challenging period for the US economy, the true effects of President Trump’s tariff policies remain to be seen. The market will likely continue to react to the developments, and both private and public sector leaders are bracing for what could be a turbulent economic future.

In the coming months, it will be crucial to monitor the trajectory of US-China trade relations, the impact of global tariffs, and the broader economic indicators that may signal whether the feared recession becomes a reality. With warnings from some of the world’s most influential financial figures, the stakes have never been higher.

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